Back in January, I scanned the popular financial media for the ubiquitous "Stocks you gotta own in 2008!" articles. No surprise, there was no shortage. I posted a link to articles from Smart Money, Kiplinger, MSN and Fortune. The plan was simple. Track the picks through the year, and see if the "experts" have any insight/crystal ball.
Halfway through the year, here are the results as of June 30, 2008:
SmartMoney, "Where to Invest in 2008"
| Name | Jan 1 Price | June 30 Price | %G/L |
| Bunge (BG) | $116.41 | $107.69 | -7.49% |
| Central Europe Media Enterprises (CETV) | $115.98 | $90.53 | -21.94% |
| Genworth Financial (GNW) | $25.45 | $17.81 | -30.02% |
| Average Return | -19.82% |
Kiplinger's Personal Finance, "A Great Stock Picks List"
| Name | Jan 1 Price | June 30 Price | %G/L |
| Allstate (ALL) | $52.23 | $45.59 | -14.09% |
| Apache (APA) | $107.54 | $139.00 | +29.25% |
| Best Buy (BBY) | $52.65 | $39.60 | -24.79% |
| Con-Way (CNW) | $41.54 | $47.26 | +13.77% |
| CVS/Caremark (CVS) | $39.75 | $39.57 | -0.45% |
| Diamond Offshore (DO) | $142.00 | $139.14 | -2.01% |
| Embarq (EQ) | $49.53 | $47.27 | -4.56% |
| Home Depot (HD) | $26.94 | $23.42 | -13.07% |
| Nvidia (NVDA) | $34.02 | $18.72 | -44.97% |
| Pfizer (PFE) | $22.73 | $17.47 | -23.14% |
| Polaris Industries (PII) | $47.77 | $40.38 | -15.47% |
| Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) | $52.48 | $43.52 | -17.07% |
| RyanAir Holdings (RYAAY) | $39.44 | $28.67 | -27.31% |
| Whirlpool Corp. (WHR) | $81.63 | $61.73 | -24.38% |
| Average Return | -12.02% |
MSN Money, "Activision and 9 other stocks to buy now"
| Name | Jan 1 Price | June 30 Price | %G/L |
| Ingersoll-Rand (IR) | $46.47 | $37.43 | -19.45% |
| Citizens Communications (CZN) | $12.73 | $11.34 | -10.92% |
| General Electric (GE) | $37.07 | $26.69 | -28.00% |
| AT&T (T) | $41.56 | $33.28 | -19.92% |
| Apple (AAPL) | $198.08 | $167.44 | -15.47% |
| Activision (ATVI) | $29.70 | $34.07 | +14.71% |
| Celgene (CELG) | $46.21 | $63.87 | +38.22% |
| Cisco (CSCO) | $27.07 | $23.26 | -14.08% |
| Intel (INTC) | $26.66 | $21.48 | -19.43% |
| Juniper (JNPR) | $33.20 | $22.18 | -33.19% |
| Average Return | -10.75% |
Fortune, "The Ten Best Stocks for 2008"
| Name | Jan 1 Price | June 30 Price | %G/L |
| Analy Capital Management (NLY) | $18.18 | $15.51 | -17.54% |
| Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B) | $4,736 | $4,012 | -15.29% |
| Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) | $27.76 | $17.74 | -36.10% |
| Electronic Arts (ERTS) | 58.41$ | 44.43$ | -13.98% |
| Genentech (DNA) | $67.07 | $75.90 | +13.17% |
| General Electric (GE) | $37.07 | $26.69 | -28.00% |
| Jacobs Electric (JEC) | $95.61 | $80.70 | -15.60% |
| Merrill Lynch (MER) | $53.68 | $31.71 | -40.94% |
| Petrobas (PBR) | $57.50* | $70.83 | +23.18% |
| St Joe Co (JOE) | $35.51 | $34.32 | -3.35% |
| Average Return | -13.45% |
Stats and Notes:
- The average return for all 37 picks is -12.67%. Only six out of 37 finished in the positive. The biggest winner was Celgene, and the biggest losers were Nvidia and Merrill Lynch.
- During this same time period the S&P 500 returned -11.91%. This means that the good folks at MSN are the only ones to beat the index. Kiplinger came close, but was just edged out. As a group, they failed to match the index. Smart Money was the dead weight.
- The MSN picks rode their way to "success" on the back of the best performing stock among all of the picks, Celgene, which was up 38.22%. Eight of ten picks were down, with GE and Juniper leading the way, down 28% and 33.19% respectively.
- If I had to give them a grade, I would probably give the group a D+/C-, with MSN managing a C+.
Really, tell me again why active managementment and stock picking is superior?
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