Kicking Cramer While He's Down

I'm taking a page out of Jon Stewart's playbook here.  I was Googling financial news and blogs from around March 9, 2009, aka The Bear Market Bottom (at least for now).  The point was to find some sucker who put themselves and their opinion out there for the public to scrutinize and, well, rip apart.  Basically, cherry pick some quote that turned out to be wrong or just sounds crazy with the perspective of time.

Well, as luck would have it, the highest profile of suckers with no shortage of opinions has a gem of a quote.  This is from his Mad Money Blog:

The potential for a second Great Depression is real, Cramer said, so long as Obama pushes forward with his plans. Nonbelievers should just look to the stock averages, which have plummeted since Jan. 20 and are now forecasting the worst economic decline since the first Great Depression.

This quote appeared on March 9, 2009.  Now, I will agree that the stock market is forward looking relative to the economy.  But let's be realistic about short term movements.  He was using a 6 1/2 week market drop as a forcast a second Great Depression.  Let's at least hope the second Great Depression won't be referred to in caps.

If what he said on March 9 was reasonable, then what are we to assume about the rally that began the next day and has driven the S&P 500 up more than 26% in the five weeks that followed?  In fact, U.S. Microcap stocks are up almost 40% and U.S. Small Cap Value stocks were up almost 45% since that date!  Wow, the stock market must be forcasting a great economic boom!  Or is it Economic Boom?

Let's put this in perspective.  Below is a chart of the market, as measured by the Russell 3000, beginning on January 20, ending yesterday.

 

Please forgive my sloppy "writing on chart" skills.  I never went to technical analysis school.

By the way, I realize that I am a month late on this, but if you missed the whole Cramer vs. Stewart throwdown, you owe it to yourself to watch.  Links below:

Part 1:  Stewart rips into CNBC, not singling out Cramer.  In fact, it was more about Rick Santelli's sudden expression of populism.

Part 2:  In Cramer We Trust

Part 3:  Basic Cable Personality Clash Skirmish '09

Part 4:  In the most awkward, uncomfortable half hour on tv, Cramer appears on the Daily Show.