I thought this was hilarious. Here a guy named Mark Spitznagel is lauded as a genius who bet correctly that the market would tank last year. Of course in any outcome with a 50% probability (Market goes up, or down a lot) you'll have some good guessers.
So now, his new genius hedge fund is going to bet that there's going to be lots of inflation. WOW! What an insight. There's even a 50% chance he's right. Are people really going to pay this guy hundreds of millions of dollars to make this bet? Message to his investors, "I personally stand ready to make the same bet for half the price he is charging you." Think anyone will take me up on the offer?
Christopher
By SCOTT PATTERSON
Mark Spitznagel made a fortune predicting the "black swan" that hit
markets last year. Now the relatively unknown hedge-fund manager is
emerging from the shadow of his collaborator, Nassim Nicholas Taleb,
with a big bet inflation will soar.
The 38-year old Mr. Spitznagel managed the Black Swan funds to triple digit returns last year with a bet on volatility. The returns have brought a flood of cash, sending assets for his firm, Universa Investments LP, rising to $6 billion from $300 million.
Read the full Wall Street Journal article "Black Swan Trader Bets Reputation on Inflation" ยป
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