Trovena Weblog

I Hate To Say So But...

...the S&P 500 is up 52% since March. That is the best 6 month performance for that benchmark since 1933. Nearly all of our clients maintained their equity positions through this crisis and they are to be commended! Doing so wasn't easy for any of us.

Where are we going from here? According to this CNBC article, "...the Dow has trended higher 69% of the time 6-months after a 6-month gain higher than 30%, while the S&P 500 has posted further gains 57% of the time. Since 1933, there has been 273 instances, when the Dow and S&P posted gains greater than 30% in a 6-month period."

I wouldn't say that is conclusive evidence of anything but at least it doesn't indicate that the rally is over and you need to reduce equity exposure.

Christopher

Read the full CNBC article "Market Performance After the Strongest 6-Month Rallies Since 1933" »

"Expert" Advice is Costly

Q:  How do you end up owing the stock market $6,000 after one of the best market rallies ever?

A:  You start with $10,000 and follow the advice of Citigroup or Bank of America.

The following link is to an article from Bloomberg titled, "Talking Wall Street Advice in Rally Means Owing $6,000."  At least when the crooks do things like this they go to jail.

Bloomberg Article

Social Media. How Big Is It?

This is a fascinating video presentation of some astonishing facts related to social media and how rapidly it's changing our world. Take a look.

Christopher

Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis Dead?

In his video link below, Chicago professor Dr. Gene Fama, one of the fathers of modern financial theory, gives his thoughts on recent market volatility. He answers the question, "Does 2008/9 disprove his 40 year-old hypothesis that markets are efficient?"

Christopher

 

Link to Professor Fama's Video

Data Mining, a Sleazy Wall Street Favorite

Our friend Jason Zweig has written a fine story today on a sham technique used by many investment advisors to claim superior performance and charge outrageous fees. It's worth a read.

Christopher

Data Mining Isn't a Good Bet For Stock-Market Predictions

• By JASON ZWEIG

Slicing and dicing data to predict the future can get dicey.

The Super Bowl market indicator holds that stocks will do well after a team from the old National Football League wins the Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers, an original NFL team, won this year, and the market is up as well. Unfortunately, the losing Arizona Cardinals also are an old NFL team.

Read the full Wall Street Journal article "Data Mining Isn't a Good Bet For Stock-Market Predictions" »

Why the Great Recession was not the Great Depression

The link below is to a great podcast from NPR Planet Money. It talks about the current Great Recession, the Federal Reserve’s role and looks back to the monetary policies in the 1920’s that caused the Great Depression.  It is about 20 min., so wait until you have time as you will want to listen to the entire program.  (I use the iPhone app Stitcher to listen to many of the different NPR programs.)

NPR Planet Money

- Scott

Trovena Named Among Top Wealth Managers Nationwide

Trovena was recently named the 68th top wealth manager in the nation.  That puts us at #12 in the state of California and 6th in Southern California.

Link below for the full article (it will open as a pdf document):

http://www.wealthmanagerweb.com/Documents/WMGR_TWM-09_FULL.pdf